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Team 11 Group Name: Fire Breathing Rubber Duckies!!
EDTC 6341 Fall 2011 All Sections
| Home | Orientation | Climate Change | Galveston Hurricane 1900 | Conveyor Belt |
The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt and Abrupt Climate Change
Cycle B Team: Model Building
- If needed, review the sample ESS Analysis
- Review the ESS Analysis Rubric.
- Using your team's original or revised problem statement, build an ESS model.
- Post your best ideas in your team's Discussion Space.
- Read your teammates' analyses.
- Develop a team analysis.
- As a team, develop support for the relationships with evidence from your reading and research.
- After completing the ESS analysis, be sure to address the request for recommendations in the PBL Tasking.
- Complete the ESS Analysis Rubric.
- Upload your team assignment to your Portfolio (ESSEA).
Conveyor Belt ESS Analysis
1. Build an ESS model to support the problem statement you developed in Cycle A.
Team Problem Statement for climate change and the ocean conveyor belt.
The purpose of this ESS analysis is to identify sources of abrupt climate change that disrupts the thermohaline system in the oceans and the impact it would have on the United States. Our team will research the severity of the impact on the ocean’s conveyor belt and how human can adapt to abrupt prolonged climate change.
2. Gather, organize, analyze, and interpret information from multiple sources to answer team questions. Think of solutions , weigh alternatives, and the pros and cons of potential course of actions.
Legend: Javier Guajardo, Juanita R. Martinez, Delilah Alegria, and Corina Carmona.
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Team Discussion: List of questions that need to be answered to understand the possibility of the collapse or disruption of the conveyor belt and how it will impact the U.S.
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Possible Solution |
Alternatives |
Pros & Cons of potential course of actions |
| Corina |
What are some ways that we can adapt to abrupt climate change? Our civilization needs to become environmentally conscious as to not accelerate or worsen the changes in climate by human activity. Natural gases, fossil fuels, and coal are things we need to break free from.
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Find other sources or energy which emissions become carbon dioxide.
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Plant more vegetation to consume carbon dioxide.
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Finding alternative sources of energy has proven challenging and civilization is too dependent on these sources.
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What kind of impact can humans have on climate change and the conveyor belt? Humans may be responsible for global warming due to the emissions of greenhouse gases beginning last century. Thermohaline Ocean Circulation Journal Article
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Reduce greenhouse emissions, conserve, water resources, reduce waste, and conserve energy.
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Greenhouse emissions will continue to destroy our atmosphere and our health.
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Consumers need to be more conscious of what they are using and wasting.
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Does the disturbance of the conveyor belt significantly impact climate? There are positive feedbacks that accelerate the conditions and negative feedbacks that counterbalance the effects of climate change. The slightest agitation to the conveyor belt can alter climate with the effects lasting a century or more. Modeling Abrupt Change in the Thermohaline Circulation
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Do everything possible to not agitate the conveyor belt that may worsen conditions and have long term effects.
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Reversing conditions, may be impossible or have little impact.
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Efforts may not provide immediate results.
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Is changes in the conveyor belt creating severe weather? Large amounts of seawater deposited into the Atlantic alter seawater density which will directly impact the conveyor belt This circulation moves heat toward the Arctic helping moderate winter temperatures in high altitude northern hemispheres. Global Warming and Atlantic Currents
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Monitor the density of the water and collect run off water.
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Balance the salinity of the water.
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The ability to control the ocean's salinity may be nearly impossible.
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Are there any other causes of the abrupt climate change that are out of human control? Past studies have indicated that shifts from warm periods to colder conditions are related to the tilt of the earth's rotational axis and the shape of the elliptical orbit.
Thermohaline Ocean Circulation Journal Article
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There is no remediation with the Earth's axis and elliptical orbit.
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Adapt.
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Civilizations must adapt to climate change. The only element that is in our control is our actions that impact the climate.
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| Janie |
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| Delilah |
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| Javier |
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3. Brief opening summary of team ideas and conclusions all throughout cyles A - B.
Legend: Javier Guajardo, Juanita R. Martinez, Delilah Alegria, and Corina Carmona.
| Abrupt Climate Change and the conveyor belt Event: Effects to Spheres |
The thermohaline system is responsible for circulating heat which keeps the climate balances. Any disruption from any of the spheres to the conveyor belt will impact the system and will slow the system. The disturbance to the salinity or heat of the thermohaline system disturbs the balance and causes changes in climates, which in turn effects the atmosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, and lithosphere.
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4. Detailed account of all changes and impacts and recommended solution. Systemic relationships and causal chains.
Legend: Javier Guajardo, Juanita R. Martinez, Delilah Alegria, and Corina Carmona.
| Climate Change Event <> Sphere Analysis |
| Impacts, causes, and changes to the sheres that result to the team problem statement. |
| Event <> Atmosphere |
Abrupt climate change affecting the conveyor belt will cause more wind. Drought will cause a dust bowl, which creates finer particles in the air which transfer solar radiation in the atmosphere. The air becomes dry from the heat and drought.
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| Event <> Biosphere |
All living things will struggle to survive and adjust to abrupt climate change. Plants will struggle to thrive in drought, and crops will be difficult to sustain. Humans will struggle to adapt to living conditions. Hurricanes will devastate areas. |
| Event <> Hydrosphere |
The melting of freshwater Artic ice and runoff into the ocean will effect the salinity of conveyor belt. Dry, hot weather will cause more moisture from the soil to evaporate and carry even more freshwater into the hydrosphere. Hurricanes and heavy rains will cause more flooding. The artic ice that melts is less mass that reflect solar radiation.
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Event <> Lithosphere
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Soil moisture gets evaporated in lower lying areas producing precipitation and throwing the salinity of the thermohaline system off balance. Loss of moisture to the land will result in soil erosion. If soil becomes barren and fine enough to become airborne it will create a dust bowl. The loss of vegetation in the soil means the loss of nutrients in the soil itself. The general displacement of soil via dust storms and being washed away by heavy rains.
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| Climate Change Sphere <> Sphere Analysis |
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| Atmosphere <> Biosphere |
The loss of plant life creates the loss of oxygen. Plants also absorb some of the heat and solar radiation from the sun.
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| Atmosphere <> Hydrosphere |
The evaporation of moisture causes precipitation. Fluctuations in cold and hot temperatures in the ocean cause winds and form hurricanes.
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| Atmosphere <> Lithosphere |
Fine dust particles form dry land become airborne and transfer heat and solar radiation. Strong winds pick up dirt and displace the sediment.
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| Bioshpere <> Hydrosphere |
All living things are dependent on the balance of the conveyor belt and its dispersant of heat. Heavy rains affect all life.
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| Biosphere <> Lithosphere |
Fine particles affect the health of the biosphere and visibility. The absence of nutrients in the soil deplete vegetation,
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| Hydrosphere <> Lithosphere |
Eroded soil gets deposited into the ocean. Drought evaporates moisture from soil.
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Legend: Javier Guajardo, Juanita R. Martinez, Delilah Alegria, and Corina Carmona.
| Climate Change Casual Chains Analysis |
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| E > H > L > A > H > B > L > H |
The moisture in the soil is depleted, drying out the land, and getting evaporating in the atmosphere. The moisture becomes precipitation and comes back to the earth in heavy rains in other areas and getting deposited back into the ocean as freshwater. Thus effecting the Conveyor belt.
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5. Evidence,
Assignment
1. You and your team need to think in terms of an iterative, or evolving, process regarding the gathering of information as you move toward your findings (PBL Step 8). When ideas begin to emerge several times in different discussions, it is a sign that you are developing a shared understanding. The focus of this team assignment is to build an ESS model to support the problem statement you developed in Cycle A.
2. Continue gathering information to answer your teammates' questions from the Cycle A team assignment with evidence from experience, research, and reading to support or refute the team's ideas. You and your team will gather, organize, analyze, and interpret information from multiple sources. Exchange ideas; think about solutions; weigh alternatives; and consider the pros and cons of potential courses of action (PBL Step 7). As new information comes to light, analyze it for its reliability and usefulness and also for its impact on the direction that the problem is taking, as well as for its effect on the very nature of the problem. Therefore, you may need to revise or modify your problem statement (PBL Step 6). Post your best ideas in the discussion space.
3. Your team's findings as they relate to the problem statement: a brief opening summary of supportable ideas and conclusions (recommendations, solutions, or alternatives) based on the information your team has collected, particularly for your ESS analysis, over Cycles A and B (PBL Step 8).
4. Statements about the relationships: detailed accounts of all the changes and impacts (revealing your understanding of interrelationships of the spheres and the event in the Earth System Diagram) that led your team to the conclusions put forth in your recommendations or solutions (findings). Make sure you include the systemic relationships, called causal chains, where multiple spheres and the event are involved in complex and interrelated changes. In a system, nothing occurs in isolation. Each causal chain should include S > S > S interactions.
5. Evidence: For evidence that your thinking is accurate, consider information, examples, and corroboration from readings, web sites, CD-ROMs, analogies, or experimental results and experts. Combine these to give credence to your relationship statements in the causal chains. Submit your team's analysis for a grade.
6. In the event that you have reached this point and are unsure about what steps 7 and 8 might look like in doing an ESS Analysis, check out the Yellowstone Fire ESS Analysis Model
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Resources provided in the ESSEA Course:
The Great Ocean Conveyor Belt and Abrupt Climate Change: Cycle A
A Paleo Perspective on Abrupt Climate Change (Cycle A)
A NOAA series of articles on abrupt climate change, ocean circulation and feedback loops.
Abrupt Climate Change (Cycle A)
From Robert Stewart's Oceanography in the 21st Century the basics of Abrupt Climate Change and Thermohaline Circulation.
Climate Impact Assessment (Comprehensive) (Cycle A)
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment: Impacts of increased precipitation and runoff from major Arctic rivers may reduce ocean salinity with impacts on the thermohaline circulation system. See for example, pages: 990, 994, 999, 1000 and 1018.
Global Warming and Atlantic Currents (Cycle A)
Study suggests global warming may alter Atlantic Currents.
Modeling Abrupt Change in the Thermohaline Circulation (Cycle A)
Scientists suggest that a high flux of freshwater into the North Atlantic 13,000 years ago caused a reduction in the thermohaline circulation.
Researchers Link Ice Age Climate-Change Records To Ocean Salinity (Cycle A)
"Sudden decreases in temperature over Greenland and tropical rainfall patterns during the last Ice Age have been linked for the first time to rapid changes in the salinity of the north Atlantic Ocean, according to research published Oct. 5, 2006, in the journal Nature."
Thermohaline Ocean Circulation Journal Article (Cycle A)
S. Rahmstorf, (2006) Thermohaline Ocean Circulation. Encyclopedia of Quarternary Sciences (Ed.) S.A. Elsevier, Amsterdam.
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| Other Resources |
| Gasland |
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PBL Model (from ESSEA Course) Steps 7 and 8.
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7. Gather information. You will gather, organize, analyze, and interpret information from multiple sources. Exchange ideas; think about solutions; weigh alternatives; and consider the pros and cons of potential courses of actions. As more information is gathered, the problem statement may be refined or altered. Or, based upon your research data, a recommended solution or opinion may be appropriate.
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8. Present findings. Prepare a report or presentation in which you make recommendations, predictions, inferences or other appropriate resolutions of the problem. Be prepared to support the positions you take. If appropriate, consider a multimedia presentation using images, graphics, or sound.
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Resources: Cycle B Team: Model Building
Cycle B: Teacher As Model Builder
Team: ESS Model Building Rubric
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