I analyzed the first few points of the PBL model just off the top of my head first, then I went back and used the ESS model. It was an interesting exercise. I found it tedious--especially as the different areas overlap--but it definitely caused me to think further than my initial process did. I like the PBL model--jury still out on the ESS model. As far as the actual volcano business goes, I think it's a great case to explore! I've never lived near a volcano, but I would think it would be a little frightening and I'd want to know as much as I possibly could about how volcanoes and lahars and all that typically function.

Looks like you guys have summarized 1-3 very well. I have put together a list of connections, but I don't think it's necessary to share them now. Here's what I came up with for 4-6:

4. List what is unknown:

What was the 1^st largest volcanic eruption in the 20^th Century?

What is a lahar, exactly?

How did the Mt. Pinatubo lowlanders respond to the lahars over time? Did they come up with strategies that helped or failed for coping with the lahars?

Where in Washington is Mt. Rainier? How are the lowlands used—farms? towns? cities?

Has Mt. Rainier erupted in the past? What were the consequences?

If Mt. Rainier has erupted, did they experience lahars?

Does the Mt. Rainer region experience rainy seasons?

By “this century,” do they mean 20^th Century?

What are the interests of the various parties who have commissioned our services?

What were the long-term effects on land, water, and atmosphere?

How long did each sphere take to recover fully?

5. List what needs to be done: 

Get a solid understanding of a lahar and how it impacts the Earth.

Identify the specific needs and concerns of the various groups commissioning our services.

Identify how the lowlands near Mt. Rainier are used—who will be impacted by an eruption?

Learn the history of eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo.

Study the 1991 eruption at Mt. Pinatubo. Determine the long-term effects on the land, water, atmosphere, and living things in the area (near and far) affected by Mt. Pinatubo.

Find out what strategies have been tried in coping with the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and subsequent lahars. What worked and didn’t work?

Learn the history of Mt. Rainier. Have they every experienced lahars in the past? If so, was anything learned from the experience?

Examine the geography of Mt. Rainier. Where in Washington is it located? Are the geographic circumstances similar to that of Mt. Pinatubo? i.e. Are they both landlocked, or are they both near the sea?

Find out what geologists and volcanologists in the area think about the likelihood of eruption.

Find out what type of eruption geologists and volcanologists in the area think might occur at Mt. Rainier, if it is to occur.

Find out if Mt. Rainier experiences rainy seasons like Mt. Pinatubo.

Find out if there have been other eruptions in the world that experienced the lahar problem. What was done to cope with the problem in those areas?

6. Develop a problem statement:

What would be the effects on the lithosphere, atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere on areas around Mt. Rainier if an eruption with the same magnitude as that of Mt. Pinatubo occurred at Mt. Rainier? 

Looking over the PBL Team Learning Rubric, five areas should be addressed. I have listed them below along with my thoughts on each.

Questions: What is the immediate landscape around Mt. Rainier? What is typical weather for Washington state throughout the year? What is the population in area surrounding Mt. Rainier? What kind of wildlife inhabits the area? How active is Mt. Rainier?

Perspective: I've never lived in Washington State or near volcanoes. My limited knowledge is based on what I've seen on tv, stories from people, or what I can look up on the Internet.

Answers: A quick search on Internet revealed Mt. Rainier stands just over 13,000 ft is 54 miles southeast of a major city, Seattle. Glaciers and mountains from the Cascade Range surround Mt. Rainier. There hasn't been any eruptions reported in the 1900s and Mt. Rainier is a popular destination for hikers, campers, and winter sports enthusiasts.

--->According to answers.com a lahar is a landslide or mudflow of volcanic fragments on the flanks of a volcano.

What Needs to be Done: I think we should gather up a list of questions that we feel are most important. Then we can divide up areas between members to gain the essential knowledge to present an educated and researched response to the Washington state panel.

Problem Statement: (This should be a work in progress right now for our group member). After analyzing the disaster of the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, we will use lessons learned to ensure similar consequences are not suffered if Mt. Rainier were to erupt.

Step 1: Mt. Pinatubo erupts (1991), depositing ash and rock fragments along the volcano’s slopes.  Heavy rains combine with the deposits, creating landslides that cause more devastation and damage than the initial eruption.

Step 2: The cause of the problem is pressure under the Earth forces magma up through the crust.  Ash deposits and rock fragments combine with subsequent rains to create landslides.  This is a case of an event having a future impact.  Because the eruption produced the ash and rock fragments, when the rains fell, they created a second wave of destruction: landslides (lahars).

Step 3: What is known is that Mt. Rainier has the potential to erupt.  It is also assumed that there must be population centers and significant infrastructure or assets near the mountain, thus prompting the concern of officials.  Getting people out of the area is an imperative.  I know, too, that prior to the eruption of a volcano, there are seismographic warnings. 

Step 4: What is unknown: status of volcano (active or dormant), the size of the volcano, the size of the volcano in comparison to Mt. Pinatubo, the pressure under which the magma exists, projections on how far and wide the ash would be distributed, the date of the last eruption, baseline seismographic data for the area, meteorological data on the amount of rainfall received in the area, population density, data about assets and infrastructure in the area.

Step 5: What needs to be done:

• ·         seismographic data needs to be collected
• ·         date of last eruption (what are the dates for past eruptions?  patterns?)
• ·         volcano size (Mt. Rainier)?
• ·         comparison of Mt. Pinatubo to other active and dormant volcanoes (size, amount of magma)
• ·         analysis of previous eruptions of similarly sized volcanoes needs to be conducted
• ·         population density analysis (how many living in area potentially affected?)
• ·         impact analysis for population (medical services, schools)
• ·         infrastructure analysis (ability to withstand damage,etc.)
• ·         cost analysis of damage to area infrastructure/cost to repair/timeline to repair
• ·         evacuation plans for population in area
• ·         emergency services preparedness analysis needs to be conducted (live drills run)--include communications readiness

Step 6: Develop a problem statement

How can we protect life and infrastructure in the event of an eruption of Mt. Rainier with the least amount of loss of life or damage?  How can we ensure a rapid recovery? 

1. Read and analyze the scenario and situation.

Scenario: In 1991 Mt. Pinatubo erupted and became the world's second largest volcanic eruption during this century. Heavy rains washed down the volcanic ashes and rock fragments that had been deposited on the volcano's slopes after the eruption. The heavy rains caused landslides which carried the volcanic remains in a fast-moving pace causing destruction to the lowlands.

Situation: My team and I will work on studying the impact that Mt. Rainier might have to the surrounding areas if it were to erupt with the same magnitude as the Mt. Pinatubo. We will use the PBL Model and the Earth system science approach to prepare our response.

2. List your personal understanding, ideas, or hunches.

Mt. Pinatubo erupted because of the magma pressure that built-up in the lithosphere. The eruption blasted out ashes, smoke, heat, and rock fragments into the atmosphere that landed and deposited on the volcano's slopes. When the heavy rains came down, they caused the lahars carrying the ashes and rocks to move down the slopes and basically destroy everything in their path, vegetation, structures, etc. As the rainy seasons continued the lahars also continued bringing down the ashes and rocks down to the lowlands with them.

3. List what is known.

Mt. Pinatubo eruption has been the second largest in the world during this century. The eruption deposited more than 1 cubic mile (5 cubic kilometers) of volcanic ash and rock fragments on the volcano's slopes which turned into dangerous lahars (landslides) due to the heavy rains.

E>A: The volcano exploded and blasted out volcanic ashes and rock fragments onto the atmosphere.

H>E: The heavy rains caused lahars and as the rainy seasons continued, the lahars continued causing destruction.

E>B: The landslides caused destruction to the biosphere (plants, animals, people) as they moved down to the lowlands.

Mt. Rainier is a volcano and there is a possibility that it might erupt and cause destruction like Mt. Pinatubo did.

4. List what is unknown.

Some questions that come to mind:

- What is the geography surrounding Mt. Rainier in comparison to that of Mt. Pinatubo?

- What information exists regarding Mt. Rainier and it's activity?

- Is there already an emergency plan in place if Mt. Rainier were to erupt?

- What is the state doing already to keep the public informed if there was an eruption?

5. List what needs to be done.

More research will definitely need to be done regarding both Mt. Rainier and Mt. Pinatubo in order to do a comparison. Gather all information regarding the surrounding environment and geography of Mt. Rainier. Study and evaluate emergency plans if there are any in place and see if they are being effective in keeping the public informed. Develop ways in which to increase awareness of the hazards involved if Mt. Rainier was to erupt.

6. Develop a problem statement. WIP

Conduct a specialized study on volcano Mt. Rainier and develop a plan to increase public awareness of the hazards involved if it were to erupt to avoid loss of life and decrease its destructive effects on its surrounding areas.

7. Gather information. WIP

You will gather, organize, analyze, and interpret information from multiple sources. Exchange ideas; think about solutions; weigh alternatives; and consider the pros and cons of potential courses of action. As more information is gathered, the problem statement may be refined or altered. Or, based upon your research data, a recommended solution or opinion may be appropriate.

8. Present findings. WIP